One reading. Three ways to overthink it.
One signal, three tempos
The Bullshitometer, Bearometer, and Moo-utral Meter update daily. Daily uses the latest reading. Weekly averages the seven daily readings ending on its Monday review. Monthly averages every daily reading from the completed calendar month. Each tracker has a separate historical cap, so a smoother summary is calibrated against the history of that tracker rather than quietly turned into a larger cash position.
Daily Beast
Bull Rush
Acts on every new daily reading.
The quickest to react, and the most likely to notice every little moo-ve.
Weekly Beast
Bearly Decided
On Mondays, averages the previous seven daily readings.
Lets a full week speak before changing its mind.
Monthly Beast
Cautious Calf
At the start of a new month, averages the completed previous month.
The slowest and most suspicious of sudden enthusiasm.
What happens when one acts?
- 1. Build the tracker's summary: one day, seven days, or the completed previous month.
- 2. Read the Bullshitometer, Bearometer, and visual Moo-utral status in that summary.
- 3. Start at 50, measure the winning meter's distance from neutral, and pass it through a gentle conviction curve scaled to the tracker's own historical cap.
- 4. Put that percentage in the winning ETF and keep the remainder in cash.
- 5. A 50/50 tie or insufficient data means 100% cash.
Why not split both ETFs?
A long ETF and an inverse ETF would partly cancel each other out. The trackers choose one side at a time, and never use the losing side as a hedge. Distance from 50 controls how much conviction is expressed; cash handles the hesitation.
How the action log speaks
The Move column describes what changes from the previous target. The Target column shows the resulting split after the review. Signal is the summary's visual reading label; a Moo-utral summary can still have a modest Bull or Bear target when one meter is slightly stronger.
Enter, increase, or reduce
Enter a Bull or Bear position when coming from cash. Increase or reduce it when the tracker stays on the same side but changes its percentage.
Switch or move to cash
Switch when the winning side changes. Move to cash only when the target becomes 100% cash. If nothing changes, the log says No action needed.
The tracker only publishes a new move when its cadence allows a review. Between reviews, it keeps its previous target.
How the ETF and cash shares are set.
Each tracker first makes the summary it actually uses: one daily reading, the average of the previous seven daily readings, or the average of the completed previous calendar month. That summary chooses the stronger side. The allocation starts at 50, measures how far the winning meter has moved from neutral, and scales that distance against the tracker's own historical cap with a gentle conviction curve.
A reading at 50/50 means 100% cash. A reading at its 75th-percentile cap means 100% in the winning ETF. The curve gives ordinary winning readings more weight without letting a near-neutral reading jump straight to a full position. Every tracker has its own cap, so a smoother week or month is calibrated on its own history.
Daily Beast
82.4 Bull·70.7 Bear
4807 historical summaries used.
Weekly Beast
80.4 Bull·69.5 Bear
686 historical summaries used.
Monthly Beast
69.5 Bull·66 Bear
157 historical summaries used.
The caps recalculate when the derived archive is rebuilt. Calibration covers through for the daily archive. An exact 50/50 tie or insufficient data goes to 100% cash.
What the reports show
Every tracker report shows its current target allocation, last action, indexed performance since launch, chart, and action log. The performance chart starts at 100, so it needs no currency or assumed portfolio size. The Cash Cow Calculator is for custom starting amounts, contributions, dates, and currencies.
These are paper portfolios. No brokerage account is connected to a cow, bear, bull, or human.